سیاست گذاری پیشرفت شهری

سیاست گذاری پیشرفت شهری

موانع جذب سرمایه در تهران با رویکرد مقایسه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمود اولاد قره‌گوز 1
امیرحسین عظیم‌پور 2
1 پژوهشگر مستقل اقتصاد شهری، دکتری اقتصاد، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، دانشکدۀ شهرسازی، دانشکدگان هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
10.22034/judpm.2025.553514.1069
چکیده
‌پژوهش پیش رو به ‌صورت تطبیقی، جذابیت سرمایه‌گذاری در کلان‌شهر تهران را با پایتخت‌های پیشرو جهانی مقایسه کرده و با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های بین‌المللی، موانع اصلی را در سطوح ساختاری، اقتصادی، نهادی، محیطی و سیاسی تحلیل می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد تهران، علی‌رغم ظرفیت‌های بالقوه، به ‌دلیل فرسودگی زیرساخت‌ها، بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی، پیچیدگی مقررات، مشکلات زیست‌محیطی و تحریم‌ها، با شکاف جدی در جذب سرمایه‌گذاری و رقابت‌پذیری مواجه است. رویکرد ساخت‌وسازمحور و وابستگی شدید درآمد شهری به عوارض، توسعه را غیرمولد و نامتوازن کرده است. به‌ منظور سنجش روابط علّی میان موانع، از روش DEMATEL استفاده شد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد موانع ساختاری اثرگذارترین و موانع اقتصادی و نهادی اثرپذیرترین عوامل‌اند. همچنین «نادیده‌ گرفتن پایداری محیطی» و «تحریم‌ها» به ‌عنوان عوامل و «کیفیت زندگی پایین» به‌ عنوان مهم‌ترین پیامد شناسایی شدند. این نتایج ضرورت گذار از رویکرد درآمدزایی کوتاه‌مدت به سرمایه‌گذاری مولد و اصلاحات نهادی برای ارتقای پایداری و جذابیت سرمایه‌گذاری در تهران را برجسته می‌کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
جذابیت سرمایه‌گذاری
رقابت‌پذیری شهری
کلان‌شهر تهران
زیرساخت‌های شهری
ظرفیت شهری
سرمایه‌گذاری مولد

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Bararies of Investment Attractiveness in Tehran Megacity with a Comparative Approach

نویسندگان English

Mahmoud Olad Ghareh Ghouz 1
Amirhossein Azimpour 2
1 Urban Economics Researcher, PhD in Economics, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Student in Urban Planning, Faculty of Urban Planning, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

This study compares the investment attractiveness of Tehran metropolis with leading global capitals and analyzes the main barriers at the structural, economic, institutional, environmental, and political levels using international data. The results show that Tehran, despite its potential capacities, faces a serious gap in investment attraction and competitiveness due to the deterioration of infrastructure, economic instability, regulatory complexity, environmental problems, and sanctions. The construction-oriented approach and the heavy dependence of urban income on fees have made development unproductive and unbalanced. The DEMATEL method was used to measure the causal relationships between barriers. The findings show that structural barriers are the most effective and economic and institutional barriers are the most effective factors. Also, “ignoring environmental sustainability” and “sanctions” were identified as causal factors and “low quality of life” as the most important consequence. These results highlight the need to shift from a short-term revenue-generating approach to productive investment and institutional reforms to enhance sustainability and investment attractiveness in Tehran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Investment attractiveness,Tehran megacity, Urban capacity, Urban competitiveness, Urban infrastructure, Productive investment
1.    United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat). World cities report 2024: Cities and climate action [Internet]. Nairobi: UN-Habitat; 2024 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://unhabitat.org/world-cities-report-2024-cities-and-climate-action
2.    United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). World investment report 2025: International investment in the digital economy [Internet]. Geneva: UNCTAD; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://unctad.org/publication/world-investment-report-2025
3.    Kearney. Global cities report 2025 [Internet]. Chicago (IL): A.T. Kearney; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.kearney.com/service/global-business-policy-council/gcr
4.    U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Foreign direct investment in the United States: 2025 [Internet]. Washington (DC): U.S. Department of Commerce; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/foreign-direct-investment-united-states
5.    EY. EY UK attractiveness survey 2025 [Internet]. London: EY; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.ey.com/en_uk/foreign-direct-investment-surveys/ey-uk-attractiveness-survey
6.    Hosseini SA, Pishgah Hadian H. The impact of foreign investor attraction policies on the development of Iran’s economy and international relations. Iranian Political Science Review (Former Sepehr Political Science). 2021;8(29):31-58. Available from: https://doi.org/10.22034/sej.2021.1915661.1276  (in Persian).
7.    Shokri M, Barghi MM, Motafaker Azad MA, Salmani Bishak MR. Investigating the impact of economic sanctions and exchange rate uncertainty on FDI in Iran: A fuzzy approach. J Econ Modelling. 2020;11(3):33-59. Available from: https://doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.219939.1560  (in Persian).
8.    Shokouhi MA, Khademi A, Zamanipour M. An analysis of the future challenges of environmental sustainability of Iranian metropolises. Geogr Plann Space Q. 2020;10(37):107-122. Available from: https://doi.org/10.30488/gps.2021.138451.2828  (in Persian).
9.    Faizi F, Barakpur N. Assessment of development plans of Tehran metropolis and its region from the perspective of climate change impacts. Soffeh. 2022;32(2):71-88. Available from: https://doi.org/10.52547/sofeh.32.2.71  (in Persian).
10.              BandarAbad A. Comparative analysis of the city’s impact on the environmental factors of livability in selected regions of Tehran. J Sustain Arch Urban Design. 2020;8(1):151-163. Available from: https://doi.org/10.22061/jsaud.2019.4849.1415  (in Persian).
11.              Rahmani M, Aminzadeh Goharrizi B, Rastegar S, Aminzadeh Goharrizi B. Comparative analysis of the proposed development model in Tehran Strategic-Structural Master Plan (2007) using Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model. Geogr Urban Space Dev. 2021;7(2):187-207. Available from: https://doi.org/10.22067/jgusd.2021.44987.0  (in Persian).
12.              Lashgary A, Tavakolinia J, Kozehgarkaleji L, Fanni Z, Moridsadat P. Evaluation of national development plans and outstanding documents in environmental justice with an emphasis on green technology: Case study of Tehran metropolis. Res Earth Sci. 2020;11(2):89-109. Available from: https://doi.org/10.52547/esrj.11.2.89  (in Persian).
13.              Rasouli, S., Mehboob Lotfkar, A. Evaluating the Failure of Municipalities in Attracting Private Sector Investors. Public Organizations Management, 2024; 12(4): 187-204. https://doi.org/10.30473/ipom.2024.72450.5054   (in Persian).
14.              ghafari E., Daneshfard K., memarzadeh tehran G. Designing a Public-Private Partnership Model in Urban Development Infrastructure Projects: A study on Tehran Municipality. Iranian journal of management sciences, 2020; 15(60): 27-50.   (in Persian).
15.              urban branding and its role in the sustainable development of Tehran’s city management. The 6th National Conference on Applied Research in Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Management and the 5th Specialized Exhibition of Mass Housing and Building Constructors of the Province. (In Persian).
16.              Rajaei, S. A. and Khorasani, M. A. (2015). Identification and Analysis of the Barriers to Private Investment in Urban Development Projects (Case Study: District 10 of Tehran Municipality). Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), 3(2), 191-210. https://doi.org/10.22059/jurbangeo.2015.55349    (In Persian).
17.              Mohammadi, A. Determination of Global Network Connectivity of Tehran's Using GNC Model. Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), 2013; 1(1): 43-58 https://doi.org/10.22059/jurbangeo.2013.50551 (In Persian).
18.              Tiurina A, Orel M, Lisovska L, Yurynets O, Prokopenko N. The essence of the development of social investment projects for the economy. Economic Affairs. 2023;68(3):1675–81. https://doi.org/10.46852/0424-2513.3.2023.32
19.              Çağlar A, Glick Schiller N. Relational multiscalar analysis: a comparative approach to migrants within city-making processes. Geographical Review. 2021;111(2):206–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/00167428.2020.1865817
20.              Schteingart M, Sierra A. Comparative studies in urban research. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos [Internet]. 2024 Jan–Apr;39(1):1–26. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.24201/edu.v39i1.2209
21.              Al-Ali NSM. Into the concept of utopia versus dystopia: a comparative analysis between two cities. SPACE: International Journal of Comparative Philosophy [Internet]. 2023 Jul 31 [cited 2025 Oct 14];3(1):10–6. Available from: https://journal.spacestudies.co.uk/index.php/space-ijocp/article/view/19
22.              Becker S, Bryman A, Ferguson H, Thomas H. Understanding research for social policy and practice: themes, methods and approaches [Internet]. Bristol: Policy Press; 2012 [cited 2025 Oct 14]. Available from: https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=QB-LaGf05z0C
23.              Mahmoudi A, Rajabi Z, Shafaghi S. Private sector investment in economic–artistic development (case study: Tabriz city). Islamic Art Studies. 2020;16(37):298–316. https://doi.org/10.22034/ias.2020.109647 (in Persian)
24.              Snieska V, Zykiene I. City attractiveness for investment: Characteristics and underlying factors. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2015;213:48–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.401  
25.              Servillo L, Atkinson R, Russo AP. Territorial attractiveness in EU urban and spatial policy: A critical review and future research agenda. European Urban and Regional Studies. 2011;19(4):349–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776411430289  
26.              Lee KH. The conceptualization of country attractiveness: A review of research. International Review of Administrative Sciences. 2016;82(4):807–26. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852314566002
27.              Correia JSR, Ferreira FAF, Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė I, Pereira LF, Zopounidis C, Correia RJC. Factors influencing urban investment attractiveness: An FCM-SD approach. International Journal of Strategic Property Management. 2020;24(4):237–50. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2020.12384  
28.              World Bank. B-READY 2025: Business ready index [Internet]. Washington (DC): World Bank; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/businessready
29.              Kamranfar S, Azimi Y, Gheibi M, Fathollahi-Fard AM, Hajiaghaei-Keshteli M. Analyzing green construction development barriers by a hybrid decision-making method based on DEMATEL and the ANP. Buildings. 2022;12(10):1641. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12101641  
30.              Maghsoodi Tilaki MJ, Abdullah A, Bahauddin A, Hedayati Marzbali M. An evaluation to identify the barriers to the feasibility of urban development plans: Five decades of experience in urban planning in Iran. Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering. 2014;8(1):38–47. https://doi.org/10.4090/juee.2014.v8n1.38-47  
31.              Zali N, Ghal'ejough FH, Esmailzadeh Y. Analyzing urban sprawl of Tehran metropolis in Iran (during 1956–2011). Anuário do Instituto de Geociências. 2016;39(3):55–62. https://doi.org/10.11137/2016_3_55_62  
32.              Greater London Authority. Council tax and rates booklet 2024/25 [Internet]. London: GLA; 2024 [cited 2025 Sep 20]. Available from: https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/assets/Business/council-tax-and-rates-booklet-2024-25.pdf
33.              NYC Comptroller. Annual state of the city’s economy and finances 2024 [Internet]. New York: Office of the Comptroller; 2024 [cited 2025 Sep 20]. Available from: https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/annual-state-of-the-citys-economy-and-finances-2024/
34.              Région Île-de-France. Investor presentation 2024 [Internet]. Paris: Région Île-de-France; 2024 [cited 2025 Sep 20]. Available from: https://www.iledefrance.fr/sites/default/files/2024-01/2024.01_IDF_Investor_presentation_UK.pdf
35.              Ahmadi K, Demneh N, Jahandideh M, Mollaei Y. Fiscal sustainability in Tehran municipality: Current situation and suggested reforms. Urban Economics and Planning. 2022;3(4):164–83. https://doi.org/10.22034/uep.2022.367278.1295
36.              fDi Intelligence. The fDi report 2025 [Internet]. London: Financial Times Ltd; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/2b95f93d-398e-42bf-bfa3-a466ef99e4c0
37.              Alizadeh H, Meshkini A. On the road to urban sustainability: Identifying major barriers to urban sustainability in Iran. Review of Regional Research. 2025;45(2):1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10037-025-00238-y  
38.              Kurt N. The phenomenon of urban rent and the role of the state in the urban development process in Turkey. Kent Akademisi. 2020;13(4):785–807. https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.797866  
39.              Crouzet N, Eberly JC. Rents and intangible capital: A Q+ framework. Cambridge (MA): National Bureau of Economic Research; 2021. (NBER Working Paper No. 28988). Available from: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28988
40.              Karampour K. Implications of density bonus tool for urban planning: Relaxing floor area ratio (FAR) regulations in Tehran. International Planning Studies. 2020;26(3):219–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2020.1802235  
41.              Festus I, Omoboye IF, Andrew OB. Urban sprawl: Environmental consequence of rapid urban expansion. Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities. 2020;5(6):110–8. https://doi.org/10.47405/mjssh.v5i6.411  
42.              Ioannou S, Wójcik D. Finance and growth nexus: An international analysis across cities. Urban Studies. 2021;58(1):223–42. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098019889244
43.              Ergenc C, Yuksekkaya O. Institutionalizing authoritarian urbanism and the centralization of urban decision-making. Territory Polit Gov. 2022;12(3):410–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/21622671.2021.2020156  
44.              Tolkki H, Haveri A. The dynamics between state control and metropolitan governance capacity. Adm Sci. 2020;10(2):26. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci10020026  
45.              Pavlov YV. The future of municipalities in metropolitan areas: Evolution of views on metropolitan governance. Econ Policy. 2019;14(1):126–53.
46.              Goodman CB. Political fragmentation and economic growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. J Urban Aff. 2021;43(9):1355–76. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2020.1742578  
47.              Pourvaziry R, Dadvar-Khani F, Ananthakrishnan S. Sustainable resources of urban economy. In: Proceedings of the Urban Economy Forum; 2020.
48.              He C. Information costs, agglomeration economies and the location of foreign direct investment in China. Reg Stud. 2002;36(9):1029–36. https://doi.org/10.1080/0034340022000022530   
49.              Andersson M. The economic microgeography of diversity and specialization. SSRN Electron J. 2017. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3683808  
50.              Kozhanov NA. Between development, growth and survival: Some current features of Iran’s model of socio-economic development. J Int Anal. 2023;14(1):72–91. https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2023-14-1-72-91  
51.              Ni P, Qiongjie Z, editors. Urban competitiveness and innovation. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing; 2014. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781007921
52.              Bardauskienė D, Pakalnis M. Foresighted urban planning. Environ Res Eng Manag. 2012;59(1):5–12. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.59.1.679  
53.              Transparency International. Corruption perceptions index 2024 [Internet]. Berlin: Transparency International; 2024 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024
54.              Bakonyi J. The political economy of displacement: Rent seeking, dispossessions and precarious mobility in Somali cities. Glob Policy. 2021;12(S2):10–22. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12849   
55.              Hidayat S, Tambunan D, Haning Y. Unjust by default: The political economy of Indonesia’s local government policy on infrastructure development. Asian J Comp Polit. 2024;10(2):152–70. https://doi.org/10.1177/20578911241260442  
56.              Bergesen JD, Suh S, Baynes TM, Musango JK. Environmental and natural resource implications of sustainable urban infrastructure systems. Environ Res Lett. 2017;12(12):125009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98ca  
57.              Ribeiro FL, Meirelles J, Ferreira FF, Rodrigues Neto C. A model of urban scaling laws based on distance-dependent interactions. R Soc Open Sci. 2017;4(3):160926. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160926  
58.              Kulczyk-Dynowska A, Stacherzak A. The impact of a city on its environment: The prism of demography and selected environmental and technical aspects based on the case of major Lower Silesian cities. Sustainability. 2022;14(11):6393. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116393  
59.              Haddad I. A new tropism of the urban fabric in the face of risk and uncertainty in developing countries. Eur Mod Stud J. 2024;8(1):106–18. https://doi.org/10.59573/emsj.8(1).2024.11  
60.              Pandey B, Brelsford C, Seto KC. Infrastructure inequality is a characteristic of urbanization. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022;119(15):e2119890119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2119890119  
61.              Park H, Philippopoulos A, Vassilatos V. On the optimal size of public sector under rent-seeking competition from state coffers. SSRN Electron J. 2003. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.430000  
62.              International Monetary Fund. World economic outlook, April 2025: Inflation rate, average consumer prices [Internet]. Washington (DC): IMF; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
63.              Mercer. Quality of living city ranking 2025 [Internet]. New York (NY): Mercer; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.mercer.com/insights/total-rewards/talent-mobility-insights/quality-of-living-city-ranking/
64.              World Bank. Banking on cities: Investing in resilient and low-carbon urbanization [Internet]. Washington (DC): World Bank; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/publication/banking-on-cities
65.              World Competitiveness Center. IMD world competitiveness ranking 2025 [Internet]. Lausanne: IMD; 2025 [cited 2025 Sep 18]. Available from: https://www.imd.org/centers/wcc/world-competitiveness-center/rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking/
سیاست گذاری پیشرفت شهری
دوره 3، شماره 1
بهار 1405
صفحه 135-157

  • تاریخ دریافت 07 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 11 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 11 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 11 دی 1405