نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The housing market is closely linked to household welfare, residential security, income distribution, and social stability, making it a central area of economic and urban policy. However, much of the existing literature examines the effects of economic changes mainly on aggregate housing demand, while households often respond by reallocating their demand across different housing alternatives. This article investigates the effects of housing price changes, household income, and educational attainment on the recomposition of housing demand using a multistage discrete choice econometric approach. Housing alternatives are classified into 24 categories based on tenure status, dwelling type, and unit size. Households are also grouped into 15 income–education categories by combining income quintiles with three levels of household head education. The empirical framework is based on three discrete choice models: a binary logit model for tenure choice, a multinomial logit model for dwelling type, and an ordered logit model for housing size. Three simulation scenarios are then examined: a 10 percent increase in housing prices, a 10 percent increase in household income, and a one-year increase in education. The results show that higher housing prices reduce homeownership, increase rental demand, and shift demand toward smaller and apartment units while reducing demand for large non-apartment dwellings. In contrast, higher household income strengthens homeownership and increases demand for larger and non-apartment units. Education has a similar but weaker effect compared with income. The findings also indicate that lower-income households are more sensitive to all scenarios.
کلیدواژهها English