Urban Development Policy Making

Urban Development Policy Making

Forecasting the budgeting system in Tehran Municipality based on designing a robust mathematical model under conditions of uncertainty with a multiple regression approach

Document Type : ŮŽApplied Papers

Authors
1 Department of Industrial Management, NT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Mathematics, NT. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Mathematics, ST.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
4 Department of Industrial Management, NT. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This research was conducted with the aim of designing a robust mathematical model for forecasting and budget planning at the Tehran Municipality under conditions of economic uncertainty. The main research gap was the lack of an integrated and localized model for converting historical data into optimal budget decisions, as well as the failure to localize indicators affecting revenue and expenditure for an Iranian metropolis. The novelty of this article lies in integrating three approaches within a single framework: forecasting with regularized regressions (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net), robust optimization using the Bertsimas-Sim approach, and multiple-choice goal programming (MCGP), which had not previously been applied to Tehran Municipality's budgeting. The robust model, with appropriate adjustment of the protection level, provided optimal solutions in which the transportation sector received the highest priority while the shares of other missions were maintained. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the model is resilient against economic fluctuations and can serve as an effective tool for budgetary decision-making under uncertainty.
Keywords
Subjects

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Volume 3, Issue 3 - Serial Number 8
Autumn 2026
Pages 495-516

  • Receive Date 25 March 2026
  • Revise Date 05 May 2026
  • Accept Date 05 June 2026
  • Publish Date 23 September 2026