سیاست گذاری پیشرفت شهری

سیاست گذاری پیشرفت شهری

پیش‌بینی نظام بودجهریزی در شهرداری تهران بر اساس طراحی مدل ریاضی استوار در شرایط عدم قطعیت با رویکرد رگرسیون چندگانه

نوع مقاله : مقالات کاربردی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 گروه ریاضی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران، ایران
3 گروه ریاضی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف طراحی یک مدل ریاضی استوار برای پیش‌بینی و برنامه‌ریزی بودجۀ شهرداری تهران در شرایط عدم ‌قطعیت اقتصادی انجام شد. شکاف پژوهشی اصلی، نبود مدل یکپارچه و بومی به منظور تبدیل داده‌های تاریخی به تصمیمات بودجه‌ای بهینه و عدم بومی‌سازی شاخص‌های مؤثر بر درآمد و هزینه برای کلان‌شهری ایرانی بود. نوآوری مقاله در تلفیق سه رویکرد در یک چارچوب واحد است: پیش‌بینی با رگرسیون‌های منظم‌شده (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net)، بهینه‌سازی استوار با رویکرد Bertsimas‑Sim و برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی چندانتخابی (MCGP) که پیش از این برای بودجه‌ریزی شهرداری تهران به کار گرفته نشده بود. مدل استوار با تنظیم سطح حفاظت مناسب، راه‌حل‌های بهینه‌ای ارائه کرد که در آن بخش حمل‌ونقل بیشترین اولویت را داشت و سهم سایر مأموریت‌ها حفظ شد. تحلیل سناریوها نشان داد مدل در برابر نوسانات اقتصادی مقاوم است و می‌تواند ابزاری مؤثر برای تصمیم‌گیری بودجه‌ای در شرایط عدم‌ قطعیت باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Forecasting the budgeting system in Tehran Municipality based on designing a robust mathematical model under conditions of uncertainty with a multiple regression approach

نویسندگان English

Azam Gholami Zarezadeh 1
Sevan Sohraiee 2
Maryam khademi 3
Ehsan Sadeh 1
1 Department of Industrial Management, NT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Mathematics, NT. C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Mathematics, ST.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

This research was conducted with the aim of designing a robust mathematical model for forecasting and budget planning at the Tehran Municipality under conditions of economic uncertainty. The main research gap was the lack of an integrated and localized model for converting historical data into optimal budget decisions, as well as the failure to localize indicators affecting revenue and expenditure for an Iranian metropolis. The novelty of this article lies in integrating three approaches within a single framework: forecasting with regularized regressions (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net), robust optimization using the Bertsimas-Sim approach, and multiple-choice goal programming (MCGP), which had not previously been applied to Tehran Municipality's budgeting. The robust model, with appropriate adjustment of the protection level, provided optimal solutions in which the transportation sector received the highest priority while the shares of other missions were maintained. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the model is resilient against economic fluctuations and can serve as an effective tool for budgetary decision-making under uncertainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Budgeting
Municipality
Budget Planning
Forecasting
Robust Optimization Mathematical Model
Multivariate Regression
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  • تاریخ دریافت 05 فروردین 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 15 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 15 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 مهر 1405