Urban Development Policy Making

Urban Development Policy Making

The Concentration Trap and Tehran’s Water Crisis: Impact of Socio-Economic Agglomeration and Population Growth on the Instability of Urban Drinking Water Resources

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Majid Sayyari
Senior Water Resources Expert
10.22034/judpm.2025.545869.1061
Abstract
This paper addresses the critical challenges of water scarcity in the Iranian capital. Unlike many global metropolises, Tehran was not originally established in proximity to sufficient water resources. The excessive concentration of socio-economic, cultural, and political activities has been the primary driver of rapid population growth and uncontrolled urban sprawl, placing local water supplies under severe stress. Consequently, Tehran has evolved into a city chronically dependent on inter-basin water transfers. This study demonstrates that centralization and unchecked population growth are the paramount factors exacerbating the water crisis. Despite a provincial population exceeding 14 million (approximately 9 million within the city), the province's water carrying capacity is estimated at only 2.5 million people. This demographic overburden has resulted in Tehran—hosting 11% of the national population—consuming nearly 17% of the country’s total urban water. Rather than advocating for supply-side expansion, this article emphasizes consumption management, demand-side strategies, and efficiency enhancement. The proposed strategies include halting new developmental loads, reducing existing pressures, managing demand drivers, and improving water use efficiency. Ultimately, the paper concludes that Tehran's water crisis is a national challenge requiring a decisive national commitment. Decentralization and population relocation are proposed as the fundamental long-term solutions to the capital's water insecurity.
Keywords
carrying capacity
concentration trap
population
Tehran
water resources
water security

Subjects

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Urban Development Policy Making
Volume 3, Issue 1
Spring 2026
Pages 113-133

  • Receive Date 24 July 2025
  • Revise Date 02 September 2025
  • Accept Date 02 November 2025
  • Publish Date 31 March 2026