University of Applied Sciences and Technology of Tehran Municipality Urban Development Policy Making 3092-653X 3 1 2026 03 31 The Concentration Trap and Tehran’s Water Crisis: Impact of Socio-Economic Agglomeration and Population Growth on the Instability of Urban Drinking Water Resources The Concentration Trap and Tehran’s Water Crisis: Impact of Socio-Economic Agglomeration and Population Growth on the Instability of Urban Drinking Water Resources 113 133 238156 10.22034/judpm.2025.545869.1061 FA Majid Sayyari Senior Water Resources Expert Journal Article 2025 07 24 <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">This paper addresses the critical challenges of water scarcity in the Iranian capital. Unlike many global metropolises, Tehran was not originally established in proximity to sufficient water resources. The excessive concentration of socio-economic, cultural, and political activities has been the primary driver of rapid population growth and uncontrolled urban sprawl, placing local water supplies under severe stress. Consequently, Tehran has evolved into a city chronically dependent on inter-basin water transfers. This study demonstrates that centralization and unchecked population growth are the paramount factors exacerbating the water crisis. Despite a provincial population exceeding 14 million (approximately 9 million within the city), the province's water carrying capacity is estimated at only 2.5 million people. This demographic overburden has resulted in Tehran—hosting 11% of the national population—consuming nearly 17% of the country’s total urban water. Rather than advocating for supply-side expansion, this article emphasizes consumption management, demand-side strategies, and efficiency enhancement. The proposed strategies include halting new developmental loads, reducing existing pressures, managing demand drivers, and improving water use efficiency. Ultimately, the paper concludes that Tehran's water crisis is a national challenge requiring a decisive national commitment. Decentralization and population relocation are proposed as the fundamental long-term solutions to the capital's water insecurity</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">.</span> <span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">This paper addresses the critical challenges of water scarcity in the Iranian capital. Unlike many global metropolises, Tehran was not originally established in proximity to sufficient water resources. The excessive concentration of socio-economic, cultural, and political activities has been the primary driver of rapid population growth and uncontrolled urban sprawl, placing local water supplies under severe stress. Consequently, Tehran has evolved into a city chronically dependent on inter-basin water transfers. This study demonstrates that centralization and unchecked population growth are the paramount factors exacerbating the water crisis. Despite a provincial population exceeding 14 million (approximately 9 million within the city), the province's water carrying capacity is estimated at only 2.5 million people. This demographic overburden has resulted in Tehran—hosting 11% of the national population—consuming nearly 17% of the country’s total urban water. Rather than advocating for supply-side expansion, this article emphasizes consumption management, demand-side strategies, and efficiency enhancement. The proposed strategies include halting new developmental loads, reducing existing pressures, managing demand drivers, and improving water use efficiency. Ultimately, the paper concludes that Tehran's water crisis is a national challenge requiring a decisive national commitment. Decentralization and population relocation are proposed as the fundamental long-term solutions to the capital's water insecurity</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">.</span> https://www.judpm.ir/article_238156_1eaefee7e6dc3d1de64f4667a3053fe8.pdf